Mar 18, 2026
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Nearly three weeks into launching an unprovoked attack on Iran,
whose supreme leader was assassinated in an Israeli air strike, it
has become clear that President Trump and his national security
team badly misjudged their enemy. The regime is surviving. And,
according to expert Vali Nasr, Iran is transitioning to an IRGC-led
state with even more uncompromising leadership. Unintended
consequences were, therefore, inevitable because key U.S.
decision-makers misunderstood Iran and ignored intelligence
warnings about the unlikelihood of regime collapse.
Vali Nasr teaches Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School
of Advanced International Studies. He is the author of “Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political
History.”